All figures below are from the validation phase on a paper account — simulated fills, real market data, real system decisions. Live trading with my own capital is planned for late 2026.
Live
Live trading with my own capital since —. All figures before that date are from the validation phase on a paper account — simulated fills, real market data, real system decisions.
Paper → live
This month spans the paper → live transition on —. Figures before that date are from the validation phase on a paper account; the month-path chart shades the paper stretch.
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The first monthly review, covering August 2026, will be published after the month is complete. Until then, the daily track is on the performance page.
Month in numbers
Contributions in % of NAV · USD, translated from the CHF account at the daily USD/CHF rate
The MF ETF proxy comparison is defined in USD; switch to USD view.
Trend + overlay + residual = total, by construction.
Month path
Indexed, 100 = last close before the month · USD, translated from the CHF account at the daily USD/CHF rate
Total system
Trend sleeve (indexed)
ETF overlay (indexed)
Shaded region: paper validation.
▲event, click for the analysis
Events
What mattered this month · model errors, market events, method revisions · written by me
No events this month: no model errors, no market events worth a note, no method revisions.
Rule: a model error, a market move that shaped the month, or a change to the frozen method gets an entry here, in my words. The complete list of changes is in the section below; the full log is on Changes.
Contribution by asset class
Month total, % of NAV · USD, translated from the CHF account at the daily USD/CHF rate
Class
Contribution (% NAV)
Markets held
Best
Worst
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Contribution by instrument
Top 10 / bottom 10 by contribution · USD, translated from the CHF account at the daily USD/CHF rate
Market
Class
Contribution (% NAV)
Price change
Position at month end
Days held
Price path
Close-ups
Three best and three worst contributions · price indexed to 100 at window start (~90 trading days), month highlighted · lower band: position held (direction, opacity = size bucket)
The window starts before the month so the entry and the trend the system was riding are visible. Long positions are drawn in bronze, short positions in ink — green and red stay reserved for profit and loss.
ETF overlay
Two legs, 70 / 30 target, band ±5 pp · USD, translated from the CHF account at the daily USD/CHF rate
Leg
Month return
Weight start → end
Target
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World equity (indexed)Gold (indexed)
Unhedged, CHF-listed share classes; weights measured against sleeve value.
Trading activity and costs
bp = basis points of NAV at month start · half spread: basis points of the quoted mid at the decision (paper fills execute at exactly this cost)
Changes and interventions
Curated by me · everything that changed the frozen configuration, the system’s behaviour, or a published figure
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Date
Category
What
Effect
No changes to the frozen configuration, no incidents and no manual interventions this month.
Rule: every fix that would have changed a position, an order or a signal on any day is listed. Pure infrastructure work is not. Full log: Changes.
What the system saw
My notes
How these figures are computed
Contributions are computed from the broker-reported daily profit and loss of each position, translated into the base currency at the daily rate and aggregated per market across contract rolls. The residual line collects interest, currency effects and rounding, so that trend, overlay and residual add up to the total by construction. Price paths are indexed to 100 at the start of the window and show the contract the system held. Position strength is shown as direction and a coarse bucket, not as a number. The automated commentary is assembled from fixed sentences filled with figures from the trading journal; no language model is involved. It describes what the system held and how prices moved and does not attempt to explain why markets moved. Nothing on this page is converted in the browser.
Disclaimer
This is a personal research project, traded with my own capital. Nothing on this site is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; no client relationship is created. Figures from the validation phase come from a paper account with simulated execution. Futures trading carries a substantial risk of loss. Content may contain errors and can change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.